|
||||||||
Notch Bulletin: The $300 Billion Deception A sobering fact about Notch Reform—the cost to correct it drops every day. The cost goes down every time a Notch baby or his or her surviving beneficiary dies. According to the most recent National Vital Statistics report, 2,575 individuals between the ages of 73 and 84 die every day—meaning 940,000 Notch babies will pass away this year. The total number of those born during the Notch period of 1917 through 1926 is now estimated at about 9,000,000. Accordingly, we have adjusted our estimates of the cost of “Lump-Sum” Notch reform to $45 billion versus our earlier estimates of $60 billion. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that our total federal budget surplus for 2000 will be $176 billion, $153 billion of which is Social Security payroll taxes. The CBO, in fact, projects the budget surpluses will continue over the next 10 years. Currently there are three Notch Reform bills in Congress that would require financing over a four-year period. The revised estimated cost of Notch Reform is $11.25 billion per year over four years. How then can any Member of Congress tell a constituent that “there is no money for Notch Reform?” In 1991, as support for enacting Notch Reform reached critical mass, Social Security actuaries were called in to show the full future costs of a popular version of Notch Reform legislation which would have provided an improved monthly benefit. They estimated the cost through the year 2020 to be an astonishing $300 billion! It was based on some highly questionable assumptions. By the year 2020 Notch babies would be 94 to 103 years old. Worse, The actuaries included in their calculations hypothetical interest lost to an even more illusionary Social Security Trust Fund. Nine years have transpired since the original $300 billion figure was put forward. Millions of Notch babies have passed away. A completely different “capped cost” Lump-Sum version of Notch Reform legislation has been introduced. Yet incredibly some TSCL members continue to be told that the cost of Notch Reform is $300 billion and that “Notch Reform costs too much.” Why The smokescreen? All too often elected officials do not act unless forced to do so. You have the opportunity force action this year with your vote. We urge you to continue to ask your Member of the House and Senators to co-sponsor “The Notch Fairness Act.” When you write, educate them about the true cost of Notch Reform. It’s time we bury out-dated notions of Notch Reform costs instead of more victims of The Notch. This article first appeared in Volume 5, Issue 5 of "The Social Security and Medicare Advisor" newsletter (April/2000). To receive future editions of "The Advisor" in its special, free e-mail version, please click here. | ||||||||
|
|
||||||||
