Recently, the President’s Commission on Social Security focused national attention on 2016, the “crisis date” for the Social Security Trust Fund—when benefits begin to exceed revenues. According to the 2001 Trustees Report, after 2016 the Trust Funds “will require rapidly growing infusions of revenues from the Treasury to pay benefits projected under current law. It is at this point—and not at later dates,” the report says, “when trust fund assets are technically exhausted.”

Currently the budget is in deficit and is estimated to remain that way until at least 2005. If deficits continue without legislative changes there would be no other revenues for the Treasury to draw upon to pay benefits. TSCL is watching carefully to see what effect the current economic recession and rising unemployment may have on the 2002 Social Security Trustees Report. High unemployment means fewer payroll taxes—and that could mean the real crisis date for the Social Security may inch closer. 

Sources: “Unemployment Jumps to 5.7 Percent,” Martin Crutsinger, The Associated Press, December 7, 2001. “Budget Chief Predicts Deficits for the Rest of Bush’s Term,” Mike Allen, The Washington Post, November 29, 2001.

Year of  Trustee Report	Date in which benefits exceed revenues	Total years
2001	2016	15
2000	2015	15
1999	2014	15
1998	2013	15
1997	2012	15

(from Social Security Trustee Reports 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001)

February 2002